Treussard Talks.

Tail Risk, Market Structure, and Building Resilience with Vineer Bhansali | Treussard Talks (E19)

In this conversation, Vineer Bhansali—Ph.D. in theoretical physics from Harvard, former PIMCO portfolio manager, and founder of LongTail Alpha—and I explore why the tails of the distribution are where both some of the most misunderstood risks and opportunities reside. We connect the mechanics of options pricing, market structure changes, and risk management to the decisions that actually restore clarity and control for sophisticated investors.
You'll hear us cover:
Why diversification alone may not protect you when correlations converge (2022, Liberation Day 2025)
The hidden dynamics driving call option mispricings in today's markets (passive flows, buybacks, gamma imbalances)
How zero-DTE retail option trading can be rational—and what it reveals about wealth inequality
Currency markets as early indicators of multi-decade macro realignment
Volatility as a tradable asset class and why options are "on sale" for building portfolio resilience
The ultra-marathon mindset: never get forced out of the game
Why "the only thing worse than not having insurance is to think you do when you don't" (Bob Merton)
Why this matters now: We're potentially exiting a 30-year regime of falling rates, low volatility, and credible central banking. In that new world, the strategies that worked—passive diversification, stocks-and-bonds—may not be enough. Bhansali offers a physicist's lens on probability distributions, market microstructure, and the practical tools for building portfolios that survive and compound through regime change.
Disclaimer: The content of "Treussard Talks" is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed are those of the host and guests and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Treussard Capital Management or its affiliates. Listeners should consult with their own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclosures, visit treussard.com.
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This podcast is for entertainment and education only. Nothing here is financial advice. Treussard Capital Management is a registered investment advisor. Please visit our website www.treussard.com for additional information and disclaimers.

Passive Investing's Endgame and America's Hidden Precarity Crisis with Mike Green | Treussard Talks (E18)

In this episode, I sit down with Mike Green—Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management and one of the most rigorous thinkers on market structure today.
We start with Mike's journey from Wharton to small-cap value, through Canyon Partners during 2008, to correctly predicting the XIV collapse in 2018, and eventually co-founding Simplify where the firm now manages $12 billion across 30 strategies.
From there, we dig into two slow-burning crises that most people are getting wrong: how passive investing is reshaping market mechanics in ways that can't be sustained, and how we've systematically mismeasured economic precarity over the last 60 years.
These aren't separate stories—they're symptoms of the same problem: asking systems to do things they weren't designed to do.
You'll hear us cover:
ON PASSIVE INVESTING AND MARKET STRUCTURE:
The critical flaw in Sharpe's 1991 "Arithmetic of Active Management": passive funds trade continuously as cash flows in and out, making them perpetually active systematic strategies
How the Pension Protection Act of 2006 accidentally created a market where over 100% of marginal capital became "passive"—and why regulators couldn't act due to regulatory capture
Over 50% passive by market cap in US equities, and the physics predict accelerating volatility
Why contributions (tied to income) and withdrawals (tied to asset values) create an unstable dynamic
The fundamental mistake: we changed markets from pricing capital to providing retirement security—incompatible objectives
The seeds of its own destruction
ON AMERICA'S HIDDEN PRECARITY CRISIS:
How Mike stumbled onto the poverty line calculation and "felt sick" when he understood what it meant
The 1963 origin: families spent 1/3 of budgets on food, so HHS tripled the USDA minimum food budget to define poverty—then locked that number in place
That same food budget now represents 5-7% of household expenditures, not 33%—making the poverty line meaningless
The real number: for a family of four in Caldwell, NJ, the inflation-adjusted equivalent isn't $32K—it's $140K
The "valley of death": benefit cliffs where earning more makes you functionally poorer
Why childcare became the single largest budget item for young families—and what disappeared when informal support networks collapsed
What we've forgotten: capitalism requires redistribution for system sustainability and provisioning the next generation
The connection to markets: when we can't afford crashes because retirement security depends on asset values, we've painted ourselves into a corner
ON INTELLECTUAL HONESTY:
Why taking time off with no risk on the table is essential for seeing systems clearly
What Earl Thompson taught me at UCLA: don't trust the "intellectual cartel"
Why Mike's analysis isn't left or right—it's about hard-coding numbers in 1963 and watching the world change around them
THE BOTTOM LINE:
Markets weren't designed to provide retirement security—they were designed to price capital. We've grafted a social insurance system onto a capital allocation mechanism, and both are breaking under the strain.
Mike's work matters because he's doing what few others will: following the math wherever it leads, even when it's uncomfortable. This conversation is about understanding the actual rules of the game—not the ones we wish existed, but the ones that actually govern outcomes.
If you want to understand why markets feel unstable and why economic anxiety persists despite "strong" headline numbers, this episode explains the mechanics.
Disclaimer: The content of "Treussard Talks" is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed are those of the host and guests and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Treussard Capital Management or its affiliates. Listeners should consult with their own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclosures, visit treussard.com.
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Incentives, Investor Behavior, and AI with Devin Shanthikumar | Treussard Talks (E17)

In this episode, I sit down with Devin Shanthikumar—faculty at the UC Irvine Merage School of Business and Associate Dean for Undergraduate Studies—to talk about how real-world market outcomes are shaped.
We start with Devin’s path from UC Berkeley (engineering and computer science) to a PhD in finance at Stanford, and how the early-2000s dot-com boom and bust shaped the questions that became the foundation of their research.
From there, we dig into what happens when smart people make painful investing mistakes—not because they lack intelligence, but because they don’t understand the incentives embedded in the financial system.
We also zoom out to what AI means for the future of work and learning, and what that might imply for the next generation.
You’ll hear us cover:
Why Devin’s research became “behavioral finance” through a simple question: what mistakes are people making, and why?
What individual investors often miss about sell-side analyst incentives.
How analysts balance multiple audiences at once: institutional clients, individual investors, and the companies they cover (and the role that access plays).
The “two tongues” idea: why analysts’ recommendations and earnings forecasts can reflect different constraints and objectives.
What changes when investing commentary moves into more disintermediated, online spaces, including the risk of echo chambers.
Devin’s working paper on financial blogs, and why engagement in comment threads can sometimes push people toward more moderate views.
What Devin is studying now about AI’s impact on analyst research, including why analyst work is a powerful setting to study AI (clear, measurable outputs and outcomes).
Early evidence on how AI can improve analyst performance: accuracy, speed of updating, and handling complex filings.
A surprising finding: rather than forcing consensus, AI may enable analysts to be bolder, especially where human judgment matters most.
How Devin approaches teaching and curriculum in the AI era, including the importance of foundational knowledge, critical thinking, and building real human community.
A candid concern about the AI age: fewer entry-level roles, and what that means for the development ladder over time.
Disclaimer: The content of “Treussard Talks” is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed are those of the host and guests and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Treussard Capital Management or its affiliates. Listeners should consult with their own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclosures, visit treussard.com.
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Fifty Years Explaining Economics to America with Paul Solman | Treussard Talks (E16)

Fifty years explaining economics to America with Paul Solman | Treussard Talks (E16)
Paul Solman (PBS NewsHour, eight Emmys, five Peabodys) has spent half a century translating markets and economics for millions. But this conversation isn't about predictions or portfolios. It's about how to think when you can't know what's coming.
The Three-Body Problem of Everything
Paul frames it plainly: the U.S. economy is 330 million moving parts changing their minds constantly. Financial markets multiply that complexity exponentially. Trying to predict any of it with certainty? Impossible. But that's not surrender — it's realism.
The alternative to prediction isn't paralysis. It's strategy. Paul walks through his framework: costs versus benefits, current and prospective, with full acknowledgment of uncertainty and unintended consequences.
The Conversation
Economics as decision-making. Why the transaction costs of worry matter as much as the financial costs of preparation. How Russian immigrant parents, family tragedy, and being a "pathological explainer" converged when nobody understood economics in 1973.
Paul shares four practices he actually follows for staying sane when the world feels overwhelming — including why he doesn't watch TV news despite working in television for 50 years. We discuss the non-profit American Exchange Project, sending high school seniors to entirely different American communities. Why small acts of human kindness compound. Why there's more good in the world than bad.
Why It Matters
Financial media trains you to want certainty. But nobody actually knows what happens next. The sophistication isn't pretending otherwise — it's building strategies that work across multiple scenarios while maximizing what you get from every moment you're alive. The framework scales. The humility matters. The human connection isn't soft — it's foundational.
This conversation won't forecast where markets end 2025 or 2026. It will show you how a legendary journalist thinks about life, decision-making, and what matters after 50 years explaining the inexplicable.
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This content is for informational and educational purposes only. For full disclosures, visit treussard.com.

Tax Planning and Estate Governance with Frazer Rice | Treussard Talks (E15)

Tax Planning and Estate Governance with Frazer Rice | Treussard Talks (E15)
In this conversation, Frazer Rice—author of Wealth Actually—and I cover two distinct, if related, topics. First, what H.R. 1 really changes for high earners, business owners, and wealthy households. Second, what a holistic framework for estate planning and family governance looks like for ultra-high-net-worth families.
You’ll hear us cover:
Part I — H.R.1: what’s changed and how to plan
What “permanent” really means in tax law and why policy drift still matters
PTET: the workaround made durable and why it favors owners over W‑2 earners
QBI/Section 199A: who qualifies now and the expanded income bandwidth
QSBS/Section 1202: 3–5 year milestones, per‑issuer limits, and avoiding status “poisoning”
Estate and gift exemption at $15M per person and practical implications
Part II — A framework for UHNW estate planning and governance
Start with a living balance sheet: assets, ownership, liquidity, and document inventory
Governance over documents: roles, backups, and why “oldest sibling as trustee” often fails
Pre‑mortems and disaster recovery: the first 14–30 days playbook after a major event
Coordinating income tax, capital gains, and estate tax across states with diverging regimes
Culture, values, and communication so wealth supports purpose rather than conflict
Why this matters:
We cover H.R.1's tax provisions because you need to understand the rules. But if you think tax optimization is the hard part of estate planning, you may be optimizing the wrong variable.
Frazer Rice has spent years working with ultra-high-net-worth families. His observation: wealth gets destroyed more often by family dysfunction, bad governance, and institutional knowledge gaps than by tax inefficiency.
So yes, we decode PTET, QBI, QSBS, and estate exemptions. You'll understand what changed and who benefits. But we spend equal time on what matters even more for the long run: building governance structures that work under stress, staffing roles with the right people (not just the oldest sibling), and creating disaster recovery playbooks so a family crisis doesn't become a catastrophe.
Disclaimer: The content of “Treussard Talks” is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed are those of the host and guests and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Treussard Capital Management or its affiliates. Listeners should consult with their own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclosures, visit treussard.com.
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Tax Alpha, Mechanics over Magic with Brent Sullivan | Treussard Talks (E14)

Tax strategies sold as "alpha" often obscure their actual mechanics — and the investment risks you're taking to get the tax benefit.
Brent Sullivan — "Tax Alpha Insider," formerly on PIMCO's trading floor and Parametric's quantitative team — decodes what's really happening beneath the marketing slides. For founders with embedded gains, executives navigating concentrated positions, and investors tired of advisors who dazzle with complexity rather than deliver clarity, this conversation cuts through the noise.
The Framework That Matters
Brent establishes the hierarchy up front: tax belongs after risk, return, diversification, and cost — not before them. In other words: "Don't let the tax tail wag the investment dog."
Too many advisors lead with tax benefits because they're compelling, then reverse-engineer the investment justification. This conversation does the opposite — we start with what these strategies do, then examine whether the tax advantages justify the risks.
What We Cover:
ETF tax efficiency demystified: How in-kind redemptions move taxable events "outside the box" — the actual mechanics, not the marketing magic.
Section 351 in-kind seeding: The path from concentrated positions to diversified portfolios without triggering capital gains, including the 25/50 diversification tests. Spoiler: if 100% of your wealth is in a single stock, this isn't your solution.
Tax-aware long/short overlays: Margin rates, borrow costs, short rebates, haircuts — why these are investment strategies first with tax benefits as byproduct. Understanding this prevents expensive surprises when financing terms change overnight.
Box spreads as synthetic borrowing: How they work, borrowing vs. lending mechanics, and the dangers of DIY'ing this unless you understand American vs. European options, collateral haircuts, and four-legged options execution.
Dark-case thinking throughout: What breaks when markets dislocate, counterparties prioritize self-preservation, and the "temporary pain" you need to be prepared for. Not fearmongering — the adult conversation about sizing exposure appropriately.
Why This Matters
The industry has productized sophisticated tax strategies. But productization doesn't eliminate complexity — it just hides it.
The stakes for investors with meaningful embedded gains:
Avoidable taxes triggered by strategies you didn't fully understand
Hidden costs in financing terms that change when you need stability most
Investment risks dressed up as tax solutions
Execution mistakes from attempting sophisticated trades without professional knowledge
Counterparty exposure to institutions whose crisis priority is self-preservation, not your portfolio
Who Should Listen
This is for investors who:
Have concentrated positions or embedded gains requiring sophisticated navigation
Want to understand mechanics, not marketing promises
Recognize that sophistication means knowing what can go wrong
If you want reassuring generalities about tax alpha, this isn't your episode. If you want to understand the engineering behind these strategies so you can make informed decisions, this is exactly where to start.
This conversation with Brent modeled what escaping the Wealth Management Industrial Complex looks like: mechanics over magic, clarity over complexity, understanding over being sold to.
Continue the education: Subscribe to Wealth, Empowered at https://wealth-empowered.beehiiv.com/subscribe
Explore your specific situation: For concentrated positions, embedded gains, or wealth complexity requiring more than education — schedule a complimentary strategic session. We'll review your situation and determine if family office-level thinking without classic institutional conflicts makes sense for you.
Reach out: https://www.treussard.com/contact
Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Listeners should consult with their own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclosures, visit treussard.com.
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Active ETFs and the Multi‑Manager Model with Kristof Gleich | Treussard Talks (E13)

In this conversation, Harbor Capital Advisors President and CIO Kristof Gleich and I dig into how to find true skill in managers, why the ETF wrapper changed the game, and how to build more resilient portfolios in an inflation‑prone world. We connect the mechanics and psychology of investing to the decisions that restore clarity and control for sophisticated investors.
You’ll hear us cover:
How to separate signal from story in manager due diligence, including cultural “tells” and hard no’s
The multi‑manager model: partnering with specialist boutiques vs. building in‑house
Active ETFs 101: what changed in 2019, and why the wrapper can lower cost and improve tax outcomes if used well
Mechanics that matter and operational oversight as investor protection
Systematic vs. discretionary edges and how to assess each
Psychology traps: performance chasing, timing mistakes, and setting risk so “I didn’t sign up for this” shouldn’t happen
Why commodities may be underowned given today’s regime and what role they can play
Why this matters now: Many investors still judge strategies by headline returns or brand names, not by process quality, alignment, and measurable sources of edge. In a world of rolling inflation shocks and fiat‑currency stress, getting structure right — manager selection, vehicle choice, fee drag, and tax handling — compounds more than hot dots.
Disclaimer: The content of “Treussard Talks” is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed are those of the host and guests and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Treussard Capital Management or its affiliates. Listeners should consult with their own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclosures, visit treussard.com.
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Fear, Not Risk: Rethinking the Equity Premium with Rob Arnott and Ed McQuarrie | Treussard Talks (E12)

Fear, Not Risk: Rethinking the Equity Premium with Rob Arnott and Ed McQuarrie | Treussard Talks (E12)
In this conversation, Rob Arnott (Founder and Chairman, Research Affiliates) and Ed McQuarrie (Professor Emeritus, Santa Clara University) examine why fear—of loss and of missing out—better explains asset pricing than traditional “risk” frameworks. We connect the mechanics and psychology of investing to help sophisticated investors restore clarity and control over portfolio decisions.
You’ll hear us cover:
Why 20th‑century returns were a potential outlier and what 19th‑century data says about the equity premium
Fear vs. risk: separating downside aversion from fear of missing out and why CAPM’s symmetry breaks
What challenges “Stocks for the Long Run” as a belief system, and what drives long‑horizon returns
Factor investing through a fear lens: value, size, and more
Practical portfolio design: Tobin’s two‑fund separation, where TIPS might fit, and limits of target‑date funds
Investor behavior in cycles: when fear of loss dominates vs. when FOMO dominates
Why this matters now: Many investors implicitly assume an ever‑present equity premium. If fear is the true driver and premiums vary with cycles and starting yields, portfolio choices and client guidance might need to adapt, as historical patterns suggest that investor sentiment can influence market cycles and premiums.
Disclaimer: The content of “Treussard Talks” is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed are those of the host and guests and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Treussard Capital Management or its affiliates. Listeners should consult with their own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. All investments carry the potential for loss, including the loss of principal. For full disclosures, visit treussard.com.
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Alternatives, Diversification, and Investor Agency with Jane Buchan | Treussard Talks (E11)

Alternatives, Diversification, and Investor Agency with Jane Buchan | Treussard Talks (E11)
 
In this conversation, Jane Buchan — CEO of Martlet Asset Management, co‑founder of PAAMCO (which grew to $32B AUM), former Dartmouth finance professor, and longtime CAIA leader — and I dig into what “alternatives” really are, how the space has evolved, and how disciplined due diligence restores clarity and control for sophisticated investors.
We link market mechanics with investor behavior to focus on practical choices that drive outcomes.
You’ll hear us cover:
A working definition of alternatives and how they mature from frontier to mainstream
Globalization, rising correlations, and why diversification still earns its keep
Private equity vs. hedge funds: leverage, long/short mechanics, and capacity limits
Private credit and direct lending: floating‑rate reality, regulatory arbitrage, and default plumbing
Due diligence in practice: separate accounts, custody risk, and aligning control with ownership
Bubble talk without the hype: being roughly right long‑term vs. perfectly timed
Investor psychology in alts: expectation setting, story risk, and staying power
Building the pipeline in finance and the power of asking better questions
Why this matters now: High-net-worth investors face more products and stories than ever. Clear mechanics, sober risk management, and true diversification — not magical thinking — are what preserve agency over outcomes.
Disclaimer: The content of “Treussard Talks” is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed are those of the host and guests and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Treussard Capital Management or its affiliates. Listeners should consult with their own financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclosures, visit treussard.com.
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Defining FinTech with Michael Imerman, Ph.D. | Treussard Talks (E10)⁠ ⁠

Defining FinTech with Michael Imerman, Ph.D. | Treussard Talks (E10)
Join Jonathan Treussard, Ph.D. for a thoughtful conversation with Michael Imerman, Ph.D. — Professor of Finance at UC Irvine and author of The Economics of FinTech (2025). They define what truly counts as FinTech, map the ecosystem across verticals and horizontals, trace the post‑GFC innovation cycle, and separate durable signal from hype across AI, cloud, and blockchain. They also explore inclusion, alternative data, and fairness in credit decisions, and close with teaching, purpose, and the skills that create day‑one value in finance.
Key Highlights
What FinTech Really IsA clear definition that holds up in portfolios and policy, distinguishing finance‑adjacent tech from true FinTech.
The FinTech MapVerticals from payments, digital banking, lending, and digital wealth to PropTech and InsurTech. Horizontals like risk, valuation, and regulation. Enablers include AI, cloud, distributed ledgers, and a forward look at quantum computing.
After the GFCHow cycles of hype, shock, and regulation shift risk and activity, and why technology firms moved from vendors to direct financial service providers.
AI’s Breakout and Quantum’s HorizonWhat is driving adoption today, what’s realistic, and why quantum could matter over a five‑to‑ten‑year window.
Blockchain Beyond CryptoPragmatic applications like secured lending and collateral tracking that improve market plumbing and controls.
Inclusion and RiskThe promise and pitfalls of alternative data and AI in credit, including proxy variables and fairness challenges for regulators.
Teaching and PurposeBridging industry and classroom to build in‑demand skills and create day‑one value in finance.
Why It Matters for Sophisticated InvestorsPurposeful wealth management demands context. Understanding how technology, incentives, and regulation reshape intermediation and credit helps investors separate durable innovation from “solutions in search of a problem,” position capital with prudence, and stay aligned with long‑term goals.
Subscribe to Wealth, Empowered — practical, candid insight at the intersection of technology, markets, and purposeful wealth management. Built for operators, founders, and families who want clarity and control.Subscribe: https://wealth-empowered.beehiiv.com
DisclaimerThe content of Treussard Talks is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed are those of Jonathan Treussard and guests and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Treussard Capital Management or its affiliates. Listeners should consult their own financial advisors before making investment decisions. Visit www.treussard.com for additional disclaimers.